RBI Monetary Policy ANNOUNCEMENTS: Rates UNCHANGED – MPC votes to keep ACCOMMODATIVE STANCE – Who said what?

RBI Monetary Policy ANNOUNCEMENTS: Rates UNCHANGED – MPC votes to keep ACCOMMODATIVE STANCE – Who said what?

[ad_1]

RBI Monetary Policy : RBI keeps interest rates unchanged, continues with an accommodative stance to revive and sustain growth on a sustainable basis: Governor. Here are all the details:-

-Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to maintain status-quo i.e. repo rate remains unchanged at 4%. MCC also decided to continue with an accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive & sustain growth on a durable basis & to mitigate the impact of COVID on the economy: RBI Governor

-Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and bank rates remain unchanged at 4.25%. The reverse repo rate also remains unchanged at 3.35%: RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

– RBI keeps interest rates unchanged, continues with accommodative stance to revive and sustain growth on a sustainable basis: Governor

– A normal monsoon to provide tailwind for economic revival, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

-RBI KEEPS INTEREST RATE UNCHANGED

– RBI GOV DAS: MPC VOTED TO KEEP ACCOMMODATIVE STANCE

– The Reserve Bank’s rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), began its three-day deliberations on Wednesday amid expectations of a status quo on benchmark rate mainly on account of uncertainty over the impact of the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. 

-The RBI had kept key interest rates unchanged at the last MPC meeting held in April. The key lending rate, the repo rate, was kept at 4 per cent and the reverse repo rate or the central bank’s borrowing rate at 3.35 per cent.

REACTIONS to RBI Monetary Policy Announcements

Dinesh Khara, Chairman, SBI

“The policy announcements of the RBI are clearly focused on extending liquidity support to stressed sectors by a more equitable distribution. The growth and inflation numbers have been revised looking at the current uncertain environment. The policy announcements are unequivocal in supporting growth through liquidity and market interventions through Regional Rural Banks and also by fast tracking resolution of stressed MSME sector. Overall, the coordinated and active efforts of the RBI and Government will support growth on a more durable basis during these difficult times.”

Prithviraj Srinivas, Chief Economist, Axis Capital

“RBI kept policy rates unchanged as expected and predictably downgraded FY22 GDP growth by 1ppt to 9.5%.  The central bank continues to maintain a conservative stance on CPI (5.1% for FY22 vs. 4.9% 3 quarter average previously). To tackle likely pressures on domestic interest rates, the RBI highlighted presence of USD 600bn FX reserves as a deterrent ahead of crucial FOMC meeting and gave predictable indications on RBI bond buying program, G-SAP 2.0. In addition, there were other credit facilitation measures for severely impacted high contact services sectors. Overall today’s measures and communication by RBI bolster current accommodative policy stance.”

Amar Ambani, Senior President and Head of Research – Institutional Equities, YES SECURITIES.

“With growth slowing and rise in inflationary pressures, RBI expectedly kept a status quo on the policy rates and maintained accommodative stance, signalling continuation of easy financial conditions. Downward revision in FY22 GDP growth projection to 9.5% was quite expected, but seems little optimistic when compared with consensus estimates. Nevertheless, RBI pursued its broad intent of plugging weak spots in the economy by providing on tap liquidity with additional lending to distressed and contact-sensitive sectors. On inflation, the CPI projection of an average of 5.1% for FY22 looks credible as higher oil and commodity prices is leading to elevated price pressure. Though healthy monsoon and higher crop output may somewhat contain food inflation. Announcement of another round of G-SAP and devolvement of various bond auctions clearly convey RBI’s stance on interest rates and government borrowing costs.On the repo rate, we have hit the floor, with further rate cut completely ruled out given the prevalent negative real interest rates. With the space for traditional monetary policy being constricted, we expect the RBI to continue to use its balance sheet to keep financial market conditions easy.” 

Surendra Hiranandani, Chairman and Managing Director, House of Hiranandani  

“By keeping the repo rate unchanged, the central bank has taken the step towards the right direction in current circumstances. With this the policy stance there is a growth oriented approach, and is much needed as the second wave ebbs. While the sector has been severely impacted in the second lockdown, the problems have been aggravated with a considerable rise in the cost of raw materials such as steel and cement.  In such a scenario, an unchanged repo rate makes more sense than an increased one which would have added more pressure on the sector. However, we also need to be mindful of the impact on prospective home-buyers due to the uncertain conditions. These set of buyers are apprehensive in coming ahead and have instead chosen to wait to buy a home. There is a need for stimulant policy measures that would enhance liquidity for the sector, ease credit provisions and increases buyer’s confidence. Any announcements in these forms would have been much appreciated”

Anshuman Magazine, Chairman & CEO, India, South-East Asia, Middle East & Africa, CBRE.

“RBI’s maintenance of an accommodative stance will help sustain homebuyer sentiments which were strengthening pre-second wave. Despite the present disruption, Real Estate has been one of the most resilient industries even amidst the pandemic and has been showing signs of recovery over the last few quarters. With the repo rate and reverse repo rate being maintained at a status quo of 4% and 3.35% respectively, banks and NBFCs will continue to render loans at reduced rates to homebuyers, thus supporting demand in the realty sector. We also welcome RBI’s directed focus on infusing liquidity in the industry, specifically in sectors such as hospitality and tourism, which will further benefit the overall realty sector.”

Anish Mashruwala, Partner, J Sagar Associates

“The RBI Governor’s statement continued the cautionary, caliberated and need-of-the-hour stance of the RBI. Given the clear impact of COVID-19’s second wave on non-urban areas, the focus on the wider local economy, especially the MSME and the mom and po shops which are still vital to the overall fabric of India, has been a major focus of the proposed measures. Having addressed the creation and supply of liquidity, the RBI has consciously considered the need to ensure equal distribution of credit and liquidity to the particularly affected sectors. The specific measures, namely liquidity to the contact intensive businesses which have faced the largest brunt of the pandemic, the expansion of the borrower coverage by doubling the maximum exposure threshold to Rs 50 crores and the additional liquidity via SIDBI to cater to these needs, are all welcome to support the overall growth of the Indian economy. In that sense today’s statement reflects the much needed moral compass of a national institution in times of a pandemic” 

Abheek Barua, Chief Economist, HDFC Bank 

“In today’s policy announcement, the RBI ticked all the right boxes in terms of its response to the second wave. The announcement of GSAP 2.0 for INR 1.2 lakh crore and the carve out for SDLs bonds in the program is likely to help ease the pressure in the bond market, especially given the higher state borrowing pressure and increase in Centre borrowings this fiscal. The central bank’s measure to provide liquidity support for contact intensive sectors is likely to aid credit flow to these sectors. That said, a more equitable distribution of credit is likely to be contingent on the whether the assessment of risks is in line with the markup over reverse repo provided by the RBI to banks. Therefore, some form of credit guarantees is perhaps required for de-risking the system. In terms of the forecast, recognizing the risks associated with the second wave, the RBI revised down its GDP forecast to 9.5% for FY22 while revising up its inflation forecast to 5.1% for the year.”

Ram Raheja – Director, S Raheja Realty

“While repo rate will continue at 4.00% and reverse repo rate at 3.35% amid Covid-19 uncertainty, most banks have used this as the benchmark for their loans. A continuation of this low interest rate regime works well for borrowers. With no hike in repo rate, homebuyers can plan for a home loan in the near future while also getting enough time for their home buying process and still can get loans at prevailing low rates. At today’s time as we are seeing RBI and banks are now focusing on other essential sectors to bring all sectors back in green which will work well in reshaping the economy.”

Dhiraj Relli, MD &CEO, HDFC securities 

“To preserve lives and livelihoods and prevent a resurgence in new waves of infections – policy support from all sides – fiscal, monetary and sectoral – is being provided to nurture recovery and expedite return to normalcy. RBI’s MPC decided to retain the rates and continue with the accommodative stance as long as necessary to revive and sustain growth on a durable basis.  MPC also whittled down macroeconomic growth numbers and upped its inflation projections, completely in line with market expectations.  It gives added credibility to RBI’s ability to navigate the country during difficult times.
Relief given to contact intensive industries – special liquidity facility to SDBI for on-lending to MSMEs and enhancing the exposure thresholds under resolution framework augers well to support growth impulses from those severely affected sectors. An increase in the quantum of secondary market purchases under G-SAP 2.0 will keep benchmark yields anchored around 6% levels. Overall, monetary policy is on expected lines and has checked all boxes.”

Bhushan Nemlekar, Director, Sumit Woods Limited  

“The RBI’s decision to maintain its accommodative stance was on the expected lines in light of the second wave of the pandemic causing the economic recovery to stumble. The prevailing low home loan rates are already enticing for homebuyers. It’s high time the banks need to pass on the benefits to the homebuyers.”

Lakshmi Iyer, CIO (Debt) & Head Products, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company-

 

“The RBI MPC was about G & G – Growth forecasts for FY 22 were lowered by 1% while GSAP amt for Q2 FY 22 was increased to INR 1 tn (INR 1 tm in Q1). While CPI inflation forecasts have been increased, immediate demand side pressures may not be a concern due to the pandemic. Inclusion of SDL is GSAP is a good move to help ease some pressure on State loans. Bond yields are likely to move in tight range and oscillate between auction supply and GSAP led demand.”

Rohit Poddar, Managing Director, Poddar Housing and Development Ltd 

“With the mutated second wave and the fear of the third wave, the apex bank’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 4% reflects the continuation of its accommodative stance ensuring the lowest lending rates to keep business operational across sectors. Policy has been in line with the market expectations , the only difference is G-sap being shared with SDLs. The enhancement in the restructuring limit and expanding the priority sector is a welcome move as it will largely help the entire MSME sector for credit borrowings. The reserves clocking 600Billion USD is a relief and will potentially help in dealing with global spill over challenges. Overall , measures announced by RBI will help boost the market confidence to push financial conditions of the business on the growth path. Consumption demand is the only way India’s economy and industry can thrive. The need of the hour is high-speed vaccinations, which will assist to stabilize business across the country, resulting in increased consumption.”

Shanti Ekambaram, Group President – Consumer Banking, Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.

“In line with market expectations, the MPC left key rates unchanged and continued with an accommodative stance for as long as it is necessary for economic revival and growth. The central bank will ensure ample liquidity support, which will ensure rates are stable. The second wave of the pandemic has seen urban consumption and rural demand being severely hit, thus slowing down consumption and growth after a near normal Q4 of last fiscal. Thus, stable rates and ample liquidity should help bring economic growth back on track as the pandemic eases across various states and districts. The GDP growth estimate for FY’22 has been moderated to 9.5% and inflation is estimated at 5.1%. With the forecast of a normal monsoon, food prices should stabilise. However, upside risks to inflation do remain with increasing global commodity prices. Export demand is better due to uptick in global trade and economic growth.Overall, a policy that resonates with the current economic and pandemic situation.”

Suyash Choudhary, Head – Fixed Income, IDFC AMC

“The monetary policy review was almost entirely along expected lines from a bond market standpoint. It nevertheless served the important function of reaffirming RBI’s framework for responding to these highly unusual and distressing times. All rates were kept unchanged and the accommodative stance was continued. Growth forecast was brought down by 100 bps (real GDP now projected at 9.5% for FY22) while inflation forecast was bumped up by 10 bps (CPI now at 5.1% for FY22). Risks to inflation are two sided with rising global commodity prices and worsening logistic costs to some extent balanced with local factors like good monsoon expectations and possibility of weaker price pass throughs owing to relatively more muted demand conditions. The policy has persisted with a state based guidance recognizing the increasing difficulties in reinstating any sort of a time based approach. However, there seems to be sufficient patience embedded in the guidance for the market not to worry about any imminent shifts in stance. Moreover, the bond market got the much anticipated announcement for GSAP 2.0. This will be conducted over Q2 FY22 for an amount of INR 1.2 lakh crores (within range of market expectations) even as a balance of INR 40,000 crores is left from GSAP 1.0 to be conducted on June 17th.”

Dr Rajeev Singh, DG, Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC)

“At bi-monthly monetary policy review today, RBI has projected India’s GDP growth at 9.5 per cent for the ongoing Financial Year of 2021-2022. Indian Chamber of Commerce (ICC) highly appreciates Apex Bank’s decision to step up its efforts to ensure liquidity in the system with another G-SAP worth Rs. 1.2 lakh crore planned for this fiscal year. In addition to that, RBI has kept the repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent. Which, ICC feels shall further help home buyers. As prevailing low home loan rates are already enticing for homebuyers, with inflation set to be high and economic recovery slow due to surge of Covid, residential real estate will continue to attract investment as it is a safe-haven asset. As an industry body, we highly appreciate Central Bank’s decision to increase the maximum aggregate exposure threshold under the resolution framework 2.0. As a result, individual and MSME borrowers’ loan (up to Rs 50 crore) can be able to opt for restructuring. The Reserve Bank of India will also purchase the remaining Rs. 40,000 crore worth of government securities under the G-SAP 1.0 on June 17. In this, Rs. 10,000 crore would constitute purchase of State Development Loans (SDLs).The inclusion of SDL on G-SAP would support state government borrowings from the market. Considering increasing debt burden of the States, this policy measure will be really effective. RBI said that it will open a special liquidity window of Rs. 15,000 crore till March 30, 2022, with tenors of up to 3 years at the repo rate. Under this banks can provide lending support to hotels, restaurants, travel firms, aviation ancillary services and other services that include private bus operators, car repair services, spa, and saloons. As an industry body, ICC highly appreciates this decision. It would go a long way in supporting cash strapped Hospitality industry. We also feel that the announcement of G-SAP 2.0 to the tune of Rs. 1.2 lakh crores will ensure adequate liquidity in the system. Upward revision of inflation rate will raise bond yields marginally in the short run.”

Prof. Esha Khanna – Assistant Professor, NMIMS Sarla Anil Modi School of Economics – Mumbai. 

“RBI stands firm in its objective to accelerate growth while maintaining financial stability and the inflation target. RBI once again takes a finely balanced approach to ensure the revival of the economy in the most enduring way amidst mixed economic outlook and intensified fear of pandemic. Noticeable feature remains the extension of G-SAP operations in the form of GSAP 2.0 which will continue to generate multiple positive impacts by not only stabilizing the yield curve of G-sec bonds further but will also continue to guard the spread over short-tenure bonds. Proactive role of RBI in the FOREX market and deployment of additional market operations lends enough confidence in the bond and equity market alongside the equitable distribution of liquidity among all market stakeholders and stability of exchange rate.  On-tap liquidity window for severely hit contact intensive services and special liquidity and regulatory measures undertaken for stressed and ailing sectors makes policy inclusive. Such comprehensive decisions are likely to enhance credit flow and turn the employment and incomes of macro-economic households on a positive trajectory by the end of this financial year. However, in near future, RBI may have to approach towards neutral stance as the gap between WPI and CPI widens and corrective monetary policy decisions are taken globally especially in the US market. At this juncture, Policy decisions must be applauded for remaining accommodative and for providing consistent stimulus to the Indian economy as the downside risk widens.”

Jimeet Modi, Founder & CEO, Samco Group

Exactly a year ago, RBI had cut the repo rate down to 4% from 5.15%, pre-pandemic levels and the rates have remained unchanged till now. India’s accommodative stance continues to remain inline with global peers such as Fed and ECB and this times policy was also aligned with market expectations. The spectrum of forecasts both in terms of GDP and inflation were balanced out and remained more or less on the optimistic side. The RBI has indeed given a helping hand, in whatever way possible to boost liquidity for MSMEs, the hardest hit space in this pandemic. Support to the contact intensive sectors is definitely a move in the right direction although the relief package could have been higher to hold the bottom of the pyramid from losing ground. Various other decisions in terms of opening the debt markets to FPIs and facilitating a Rs. 1.2 Lakh Cr in Q2FY22 for GSAP2.0 will aid to safeguard our economy from contraction and keep markets buoyant.

Shishir Baijal, Chairman & Managing Director, Knight Frank India

“We welcome the RBI’s move to maintain status quo on key policy interest rates. Although expected, the RBI has continued its growth supportive policy stance. Additional measures to enhance liquidity support to most vulnerable touch sensitive sectors and small businesses; and expanded credit exposure limit for resolution is a great move.  As the nation attempts to recover from the second wave of pandemic, there is a dire need to provide monetary policy support – on account of both easy availability and lower cost of funds – to households and businesses alike. Besides the monetary policy intervention, as we come out of graded regional lockdowns and further resume economic activities, there is a greater need to provide adequate fiscal support to jump start consumption demand. Demand stimulant measure like credit subsidy or tax waivers even for a limited period can play a transformative role until we reach the pre COVID-19 normalcy thresholds.”

Madhavi Arora, Lead Economist, Emkay Global Financial Services

“The MPC expectedly stayed on hold and emphasised its commitment to keeping policy accommodative and maintaining ample liquidity as long as necessary. This more state-led guidance hinges on growth revival becoming durable. The 100bps downgraded FY22 growth forecast to 9.5% was accompanied with acknowledgment of rising uncertainty amidst Covid second wave and localized lockdowns, while inflation is seen at 5.1% for FY22, broadly same as last policy. The bigger move was with regards to yield management as the RBI stressed on smooth liquidity management and orderly Gsec borrowings, with a more vocal and defined GSAP . Of the residual Rs400bn GSAP 1.0 , around Rs100bn will be allocated to SDLs, while the GSAP 2.0 amount will be higher at Rs1.2tn for 2QFY21.  This would further ensure lower sovereign risk premia ahead amid elevated borrowing calendar this year. On other liquidity and regulatory front, Resolution 2.0 expanded to wider range of borrowers: (1) on-tap liquidity of Rs150bn for 3yrs at repo rate to provide loans to contact services and new liquidity worth Rs 160bn to SIBDI for on-lending for MSMEs and increase in the restructuring eligibility limits for MSMEs. Overall, while we do not see any action on the policy rate front in the coming months, we are poised to see a more accountable and action oriented RBI ahead. We reckon even as yields may inch up gradually and orderly, the RBI will continue to strive fixing skewed yield and maintain its preference for curve flattening (with GSAPs and OMOs). We see net OMO + GSAP purchases to the tune of Rs4.5-5tn in FY22.”

 Anuj Khetan, Director, Vijay Khetan Group

“Due to the second wave of COVID-19 and the lockdown restrictions imposed in various States, the monetary policy committee’s decision to keep key rates unchanged at 4% was on expected lines. This move is a much-appreciated step recognizing the role of the real estate sector in generating employment and economic activity. With the interest rates at a record low, the Government will continue taking affirmative measures as long as it is necessary to revive the economy and mitigate the impact of the second wave of the pandemic.” 

Vinutaa S, Assistant Vice President and Sector Head, ICRA Limited 

“The announcement made by the RBI today on opening a separate liquidity window of Rs. 15,000 crore till March 31, 2022 for severely impacted sectors including hotels and restaurants is a welcome move. However, given the inherent stress in the hospitality space and the fact that credit risk will continue to remain with the banks unlike with ECLGS, the actual benefit for the sector from the aforesaid liquidity window remains to be seen.”

 

Jyoti Prakash Gadia, Managing Director, Resurgent India.

“The policy is a facilitator for the growth and revival of the worst impacted sectors and MSME. On expected lines, the Reserve Bank of India has kept the policy rate unchanged with a welcome indication of the continuation of accommodative stance on a long term basis as per requirement.
RBI has rightly recognised the need to support growth even at the cost of  current inflationary trends
Relying upon, projected normal monsoon, price stability is expected with an inflation target of 5.1 % for the full year 2021 _22. This could be a difficult task though considering the continued supply constraints. On the Liquidity front, RBI has committed to continue the initiative of additional funds including the participation of the states to ensure widespread Demand Led growth.  Worst impacted sectors like hospitality and aviation will be provided additional funds which is a long-awaited welcome step. Apart from funds infusion, these sectors will however require specific sector sector wise relaxation too. Expanding the scope for the resolution framework 2.0 announced on 5th May 2021 for borrowers enjoying a limit of up to  50 crores is also a step in the right direction for early Revival but the amount could have been raised to 100 crores for broader coverage. Recognising the crucial role played by MSME, by way of direct liquidity infusion specific sectors have been identified. Funds for SIDBI of Rs16000 crores to be utilised for lending to small borrowers will also boost MSME support which is the need of the hour.

 

“It goes without saying that the real estate industry’s perennial hope is fixed on lower interest rates. Any further reduction of the repo rate would have aided in ensuring adequate flow of capital in the market. However, home loan interest rates have already gone down substantially in the recent past, and are presently at an all-time low. Homebuyers will continue to take advantage of the lowest ever home loan interest rates and with the emerging need, the demand for housing is going to sustain as it is a safe-haven asset and many fence-sitters will take the plunge and make the purchase once the situation normalizes. There was a major revival in the residential sector recently despite the pandemic last year. The second wave of the pandemic may have disrupted the recovery of the real estate sector to some extent but we expect a strong revival in the second half of this fiscal and the long-term outlook remains healthy. As the states are in the process of easing lockdowns, the real estate industry would need all-around support and quick assistance to pick up their business thread again,” Ramani Sastri – Chairman & MD, Sterling Developers Pvt. Ltd. said.

Shiv Parekh, Founder, hBits, says, “It is a welcome step by the RBI to keep repo rate unchanged. The second wave of Covid 19 has affected the Indian economy, the lockdown has resulted in inventory and logistics challenges. The unchanged repo rate will help in the fiscal efforts of the government. It will help in sustaining the economic stability in the country as well as keep the real estate sector stay afloat during these unprecedented times. RBI’s decision of extending the benefit of restructuring some commercial real estate loans (CRE) to non-bank lenders will also benefit the overall real estate sector. We expect that real estate, both commercial and housing will contribute a substantial share to the overall economic development, due to these measures. It is expected that repo rates are not hiked for the next two quarters and an accommodation monetary policy is maintained for overall economic momentum.”

Sonam Chandwani, the Managing Partner at KS Legal & Associates

“As predicted, key rates are unchanged, and the stance of RBI seems to be lenient and accommodating which is certainly the need of the hour considering the current pandemic hit economic crises. Moreover, the decision to keep the liquidity flowing and restructuring scheme is certainly a welcome move and rightly so, keeping in mind the small and medium enterprises who are strapped in liquidity chomped sectors.”

Gurjodhpal Singh, CEO, Tide (INDIA)

“This is definitely a positive move in the right direction for India’s economic recovery. This special liquidity facility will provide the necessary stimulus to several SMEs. This indeed reiterates the regulator’s commitment to create an ecosystem that helps multiple players, irrespective of scale, flourish as well as help preserve financial stability. The fact that the facility will be available at the existing repo rate for a period of one year (could be extended on need-basis) will help SMEs cope with the stress as well as the losses incurred during the pandemic. At a time, when India has already seen 25.3 million job losses since January 2021, this package might help manage a balanced cash-flow for many small businesses who would have otherwise resorted to downsize employees.”

Vinutaa S, Assistant Vice President and Sector Head, ICRA Limited 

“The announcement made by the RBI today on opening a separate liquidity window of Rs. 15,000 crore till March 31, 2022 for severely impacted sectors including hotels and restaurants is a welcome move. However, given the inherent stress in the hospitality space and the fact that credit risk will continue to remain with the banks unlike with ECLGS, the actual benefit for the sector from the aforesaid liquidity window remains to be seen.”

Pradeep Aggarwal, Founder & Chairman, Signature Global Group, Chairman, ASSOCHAM, National Council on Real Estate, Housing and Urban Development

“We thank the apex bank for continuing with the accommodative stance. The second wave and increasing input costs are having a devastating impact on the survival of many businesses. The RBI has rightly taken steps to address the deteriorating health of MSMEs and various other sectors affected severely by the second wave. The low home loan interest rate has been a crucial demand by real estate, and the RBI has helped the sector by maintaining the status quo. We would suggest that the buyers take advantage of the current situation because later prices might go upwards under the pressure of increased costs.”

Dhruv Agarwala, Group CEO, Housing.com, Makaan.com & Proptiger.com

“The RBI move to hold the repo rate at 4% in its monetary policy review is along expected lines. Considering there have been widespread economic ramifications of the various lockdowns announced by states to contain the second wave of the virus, this was the appropriate thing to do. However, we expect the banking regulator to announce monetary support to the NHB to revive growth in the real estate sector, which is the country’s second-largest employment generating sector in India.”

“The developer community might find some support from the central bank’s decision to launch the Resolution Framework 2.0, under which the RBI will expand coverage of borrowers to Rs 50 crore, from the earlier Rs 25 crore. In a move that augurs well for small businesses in the country that are reeling under the impact of the second wave, the RBI has extended the special liquidity facility of Rs 16,000 crores to SIDBI to support MSMEs.”

Amarjit Bakshi, CMD Central Park

“The RBI Governor has said that the priority is to support growth, so the MPC maintained the accommodative stance. When everyone is struggling with liquidity, the announcement of G-SAP 2.0 will ensure adequate liquidity in the system. Then the MPC has taken an unconventional measure of On Tap liquidity window for contact intensive sectors to help segments such as hotels, tourism, salons, aviation ancillary services, etc. Though we were expecting real estate specific announcements, we understand that the RBI must focus on every sector for economic growth. For real estate, maintaining the repo rate will help a lot as it will help in retaining the buyer sentiment.”

Uddhav Poddar, MD, Bhumika Group

“The RBI has maintained interest rates unchanged for the last few MPCs, citing inflationary concerns. The RBI has maintained its accommodative stance in today’s MPC also until it deems an appropriate time to spur economic development without endangering its primary goal of keeping inflation under control. While it is acceptable that the repo rate remains steady, the need for industry specific steps cannot be overlooked. While buyers were returning to real estate but after the second wave has hit us the demand has once again muted, hence to once again be spur demand,  interest rates need to be further reduced and thereby making homes and realty assets more attractive with low EMIs.”

Prateek Mittal, ED, Sushma Group

“Looking over the MPC, it’s evident that the central bank is bullish on the economy. The position radiates confidence in the economy’s growth, and it has taken steps to support numerous companies and sectors. While actions were needed for real estate sector too, it is sufficient to implement the announcements made in the last few months to make progress.”

 

Rajesh Mirjankar, MD & CEO, InfrasoftTech  

“In its latest statement on developmental and regulatory policies, RBI announced that NACH payment mode would be available on all days instead of only being available on bank working days. NACH has been a popular mode for bulk transfers for government, mutual funds and corporate firms. The decision is a welcome move that will enhance investor experience and enable faster processing times for salaries, dividends and pension distributions. The finance and banking industry will benefit from this at large, and so will the millions of beneficiaries of NACH who will receive their respective benefits promptly with minimum delay. In addition, NACH availability on all days will now enable industries to leverage electronic payment modes to a greater extent. It is also imperative to note that digital payments will be more impactful when all electronic payment modes are made available on all days.”

Shraddha Kedia-Agarwal – Director, Transcon Developers

“RBI maintaining status quo on key policy rates was expected given the inflationary concerns in recent months. The low interest rates for the last few months has already given a boost to the real estate sector upticking the demand in the last few quarters and enhancing the confidence of the homebuyers. The decision will help to sustain liquidity for some period as we are already witnessing the derailment of economic momentum due to the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns in different regions. It will also help in sustaining economic stability as well as keep the real estate sector stay afloat during these unprecedented times.”

Rahul Gupta, Head of Research- Currency | Emkay Global Financial Services

“The RBI policy did not have a major reaction on the fx market, and USDINR spot is flat as traders wait for the US NFP data. The US NFP data will be a key determinant of the market mood for June. After yesterday’s ADP jobs data, expectations have increased for a strong reading of nonfarm payrolls and a stronger-than-expected figure will squarely puts the focus on the FOMC meeting on 16 June, probably sending the dollar higher against its major peers. In USDINR spot, 73.25-73.30 is a crucial resistance, a consistent above that can push prices towards 73.60-73.75 zone while 72.75-72.50 will act as a crucial support.“

Manish Patel, Founder and CEO, Mswipe 

“RBI’s move on extending Rs. 15,000 crore liquidity window for contact intensive sectors comes as a huge relief to MSMEs. The MSME sector has been adversely affected due to the second wave of the pandemic as they are experiencing shortage of working capital with cash flow drying up and abysmally low demand from consumers.  While the lockdown-like restrictions will continue to impact hospitality industry, travel industry and beauty and salon segment for the coming months as well, merchants will continue to face revenue pressures. This move will help these sectors tide over the cash crunch and working capital issues.”

Saurabh Garg, Co-Founder & CBO, NoBroker.com

“It is good to see that RBI is talking relevant initiative to promote the housing sector. By retaining the interest rates at a decade low makes it the best time to buy a house. So this works two ways. Firstly stable and low home loan rates would boost buying sentiment in the real estate sector. Many potential homebuyers have already realized the importance of owning a physical asset. And secondly, it continues to offer a positive outlook for the sector which would eventually promote healthy economic growth. 

Maharashtra has shown that reduction of stamp duty helped the sector significantly. If this can also be done again and if this measure is adopted by more states, it would really help drive more demand.”

 

Shachindra Nath, Executive Chairman and Managing Director, U GRO Capital.

“The opening of a special liquidity window of INR 15,000 crore till March 31, 2022, will act like a lifeline for affected hospitality and tourism sectors. It is appreciative of RBI to address the pandemic effects on multiple micro and small businesses like salons, car repair and rental services, who saw miniscule business. The measures announced would certainly assist in their revival process. Towards supporting the larger MSME ecosystem, RBI has decided to extend a special liquidity facility of ₹16,000 crore to SIDBI for on-lending/ refinancing through novel models and structures. The impact will be visible in ensuring sustained credit flow in the real economy. Further expanding the Resolution framework 2.0 from Rs. 25 crore to Rs. 50 crore will extend the credit coverage to a higher number of individuals and businesses . Considering the significant contribution of MSMEs to GDP, the relief measures will catalyze MSME recovery and further stimulate financial stability in the economy.”

Anagha Deodhar – Chief Economist, ICICI Securities

“As expected, the MPC voted unanimously to keep repo rate unchanged and the stance of monetary policy ‘accommodative as long as necessary’. The decision to hold rates came on the back of a difficult backdrop of slowing growth are rising inflation. The MPC upped inflation forecast for better part of FY22 by 20-30bps and lowered GDP growth forecast sharply to 9.5%, mainly due to lower than expected growth in H1FY22. This shows that the committee’s priority is supporting growth recovery. The RBI also announced on-tap liquidity window of Rs 150bn for contact-intensive sectors, additional liquidity facility of Rs 160bn to SIDBI and enhanced the threshold for resolution. Moreover, it announced purchase of government securities worth Rs 1.2trn under GSAP 2.0 in Q2FY22. All these measures together are likely to keep financial conditions in the economy benign and support recovery.”

Nishant Deshmukh, Founder & Managing Director, Sugee Group

 

‘’Maintaining an accommodative stance will infuse liquidity in the economy while keeping inflation within its target. The interest rates will continue to be at a record low; however, the banks should pass on the benefits to the homebuyers, which will boost real estate demand. There has been a slowdown in the real estate market due to COVID -19 pandemic, and we expect the sector to bounce back soon. We urge the Government to reconsider its decision on the stamp duty waiver in the interest of the homebuyers and encourage them to invest in real estate. Also, the industry status for the real estate sector has been long-standing demand, and we anticipate the concern to be addressed soon. We feel that the Government should keep a continuous check on the reforms that will give a fillip to the real estate sector and indirectly help revive the economy.’’

Indranil Pan, Chief Economist – YES BANK

“As was expected, there were no change in the headline monetary policy rates as also the stance. In his statement, the Governor acknowledges the growth risks and now projects a lower real GDP growth for the year at 9.5%. Inflation projections have been raised too. Given the current evolution of the growth-inflation dynamics, there was absolutely no scope for the RBI to change its policy rates. Instead, the RBI endeavoured to keep the system fluid with adequate liquidity and also targeting rescue operations for the most stressed sectors in the economy. Consequently, a liquidity window was opened up for the contact intensive sectors that continue to totter with the burden of the pandemic. SIDBI was provided with a special liquidity facility to on-lend to MSMEs, specially the smaller ones. To enable the government to borrow at attractive rates, another round of bond buying was announced under G-SAP 1.0 while a G-SAP 2.0 was announced. We think that over the current FY, the RBI will not have any leeway to change its interest rates to provide support to the economy. Instead, it will do whatever necessary to push credit and liquidity to the stressed areas of the economy so as to prevent erosion of the supply chains in the economy.”

Arun Kumar Nayyar, CEO, NeoGrowth Credit Pvt Ltd. 

“RBI has maintained stability in interest rate and liquidity in the system. This will encourage the credit off-take and maintain benign interest rate scenario in the money market system. The special liquidity to SME sectors is the further boost to GDP growth for FY2022.”

 

Bekxy Kuriakose, Head – Fixed Income, Principal Asset Management 

Today’s Policy did not have any major big bang fireworks or announcements. As expected the RBI MPC voted unanimously to keep key rates unchanged and stance accommodative to revive growth. Market was expecting that RBI may increase the quantum of GSap (Government Securities Acquisition Programme) for the next quarter i.e. July to September 2021 which they did ( From Rs 1 lakh cr to Rs 1.20 lakh cr). Of the remaining Rs 40,000 cr worth of purchases to be done under GSAp 1.0 for June 2021, 10000 cr is earmarked for SDL purchases. 

Gilt yields are stable post policy announcement with the current ten yr benchmark gilt trading around 6%. Given RBI’s active and dynamic management of primary auctions, OMOs (Open Market Operations) any rise in gilt yields on inflationary and fiscal concerns maybe tempered by RBI actions. In the near term we expect money market yields to remain stable as well considering there is no announcement on higher tenor variable reverse repo auctions but the same cant be ruled out in future. SDL spreads should also remain supported with ten yr SDL spreads in range of 75-80 bps. 

We would advice investors to follow a balanced asset allocation approach for investing in debt funds and look at high quality short term debt category for core allocations.”

 Pankaj Sharma, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Religare Finvest Ltd

“The RBI has adopted a wait and watch strategy by adopting status quo on policy rates and this is on expected lines. At the same time, it has reiterated that growth remains a priority while the need for policy action from all sides to support business sentiment revival, including fiscal measures is warranted . It is now clear that RBI may be waiting for the second wave to abate (which it currently is showing the definite signs) and it is then expected to take action by further reducing policy rates to revive growth on a sustainable basis. At the same time, the central bank continues to assuage the markets by launching a host of measures to support growth and ensure adequate liquidity in the banking system. Further, RBI’s move to enhance the overall exposure from INR 25 crores to INR 50 crores under Resolution Framework 2.0 is expected to help more MSMEs, non-MSMEs and individuals who have taken loans but have been impacted by the pandemic. This will help bring down systemic risks in the banking system.”

 Churchil Bhatt, EVP & Debt Fund Manager, Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company

“The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has left the benchmark rates unchanged in its June 21 policy meeting, thereby prolonging its much needed support to the real economy. It has also decided to continue with its accommodative policy stance as long as necessary to revive growth on a durable basis. In light of the Covid 19 second wave, RBI has also revised down its GDP forecast to 9.5% for FY22, while its FY22 CPI forecast is at 5.1%. Risks to inflation remain balanced in RBI view. MPC is of the opinion that, in order to return to normalcy, economy needs continued support on all fiscal, monetary and sectoral front. MPC has also announced a host of targeted policy support measures to help sectors adversely affected by Covid second wave. On the bond market front, RBI re-emphasized its guidance on orderly evolution of Yield Curve with the announcement of INR 1.2 Trillion GSAP 2.0. We expect bond markets to take comfort from continued RBI support. In light of the above, 10Y Benchmark Gsec should continue to trade in 5.90%-6.10% range in the near term.”

Annuj Goel, Managing Director, Goel Ganga Developments, says, “As per our expectations, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has retained the benchmark interest rate at the existing levels at its monetary policy review as MPC voted to keep accommodative stance and keeping the interest rate unchanged. We welcome this move by RBI’s rate-setting panel MPC of retaining benchmark interest rate. It’s relief from the Central bank in the wake of inflation and with regard to the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Lincoln Bennet Rodrigues, Founder and Chairman, Bennet & Bernard Group, “A rate cut would have been beneficial for the consumers and would have given a boost to current demand uptick that we have seen recently. Residential demand is reviving in the pandemic context and this needs to be fostered. However, the prevailing home loan rates which are a record low are already enticing for homebuyers. For any investor, it’s a time of great opportunity and for the end-customer, it’s a good time to buy. Going forward, we would also like to see reduction in stamp duty & registration charges to push demand further in the real estate sector that forms the backbone of several other sectors. We urge the government to introduce measures that truly uplift the real estate sector which also contributes significantly to the country’s economic growth.”

Honeyy Katiyal, Founder of Investors Clinic, says, The economic activities have  been impacted by the second wave of Covid, followed by the lockdown. There is also a need to enhance liquidity in the system, especially for the industries which got impacted. In real estate; as the apex bank has kept the rates unchanged, the overall positive economic indicators shall further help home buyers. Real estate industry’s perennial hope is fixed on lower interest rates; the prevailing low home loan rates are already enticing for homebuyers. With inflation set to be high and economic recovery slow due to surge of Covid, residential real estate will continue to attract investment as it is a safe-haven asset. And as the second wave of covid effected the economy badly so it is expected that the government has to keep the rates constant for a longer period of time.”

Kumaresh Ramakrishnan, CIO-Fixed Income, PGIM India Mutual Fund, “The second bi monthly monetary policy for fiscal 2022, expectedly retained a status quo on all key policy rates. The MPC refrained from issuing any “time-based guidance” on liquidity normalisation just reiterating its “accommodative stance” on rates and its resolve to maintain “surplus liquidity” to help the economy return to a durable growth path. Based on the success of G-sec Acquisition Programme (G-SAP) 1.0 (INR 1.0 trillion) and in continuation with its narrative of anchoring long end rates at competitive levels, RBI announced G-SAP 2.0 for INR 1.2 trillion for the July – August quarter. The absence of a time based guidance will help the shorter end of the yield curve to stay largely unchanged for the short to medium term. We would continue focusing on the Banking & PSU, Corporate bond and Dynamic Bond fund categories, post today’s policy.”

Prithviraj Srinivas, Chief Economist, Axis Capital, “RBI kept policy rates unchanged as expected and predictably downgraded FY22 GDP growth by 1ppt to 9.5%.  The central bank continues to maintain a conservative stance on CPI (5.1% for FY22 vs. 4.9% 3 quarter average previously). To tackle likely pressures on domestic interest rates, the RBI highlighted presence of USD 600bn FX reserves as a deterrent ahead of crucial FOMC meeting and gave predictable indications on RBI bond buying program, G-SAP 2.0. In addition, there were other credit facilitation measures for severely impacted high contact services sectors. Overall today’s measures and communication by RBI bolster current accommodative policy stance.”

Kaushal Agarwal – Chairman, The Guardians Real Estate Advisory, says, “The RBI and especially the MPC are to be commended for maintaining an accommodative stance for the sixth consecutive time now. Their approach towards tackling the situation created by the pandemic and steps taken to help revive the economy will go down in history as being one of the finest. Keeping in mind the disastrous COVID-19 second wave, a slight reduction in the key rates would have been widely celebrated. The reduction would have helped spur growth in demand for real estate assets, which has been severely hit as a result of the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns. Apart from the reduction in stamp duty charges in some parts of the country, the all-time low housing loan rates have given the much-required fillip to sales activity in the last couple of quarters. With the temporary reduction in transaction costs being withdrawn, in states like Maharashtra, the expectation amongst stakeholders of the industry is that the banks should now further sweeten the lending rates, at least till such time that the economy gets back to the pre-COVID levels.”

 

 

 

 

 



[ad_2]

Source link

Share

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Share This